Blue Jays vs Orioles Predictions, Picks, Odds — 6-5 (2024)

Jose Berrios starts have been a sign of hope in an otherwise dismal year for the Blue Jays, but the Orioles' Albert Suarez is more than capable of matching strides with him and helping Baltimore build an early lead, per our MLB betting picks.

Another game against the Baltimore Orioles and another loss for the Toronto Blue Jays. These American League East rivals, if you can call them that, have played 17 times since the start of last season and the Orioles have won 14 of those games.

So why do the MLB odds have the Blue Jays favored in Wednesday night’s matchup? Well, the answer is Jose Berrios. But my Orioles vs. Blue Jays predictions think he may not be enough in this matchup as I make my MLB picks for June 5.

Orioles vs Blue Jays prediction

My best bet
Orioles -0.5 F5 run line (+115 at PROLINE+)

My analysis

The Baltimore Orioles are what the Toronto Blue Jays were hoping to be. But it’s almost shocking to see how far the O’s have flown past the Jays the past few seasons.

Not only is Baltimore coming off an American League East title but they also have a seemingly unending string of top prospects to call up. Meanwhile, Toronto looks more and more like a team that will never reach it’s full potential.

The Orioles are now 39-20 following Tuesday's 10-1 beatdown, which in turn dropped the Blue Jays to 28-32 and firmly in the basem*nt of the AL East.

Toronto is now an ugly 3-14 straight-up vs. Baltimore with a -41 run differential since the start of last season. So, why did the Blue Jays open as -130 favorites in this one? Well, because Jose Berrios has been one of the bright spots of the team this season.

Berrios is pitching to a 2.79 ERA and in a recent start vs. the Orioles back on May 13, he held them to two runs on three hits over seven innings. Unfortunately, the right-hander could be in for a bit of a regression.

His expected ERA sits at 4.15 and his .261 opponent expected batting average is in the 29th percentile. Despite the recent strong start against the O’s, this lineup has given Berrios some issues. Current Orioles players have a .277 xBA and a .521 xSLG during their careers vs. Berrios.

Baltimore counters Berrios with a right-hander of its own in Albert Suarez. If you haven’t heard of Suarez it’s because he’s been overseas dominating the NPB and KBO, and the Orioles may have found something.

The 34-year-old Suarez joined the O’s in mid-April, making 12 appearances and five starts. Overall, his xERA and xBA rank in the 83rd and 77th percentiles, respectively, and the right-hander has allowed just one earned run on six hits over his last nine innings.

While those starts came against the Tampa Bay Rays and Chicago White Sox, the Blue Jays haven’t been much better than them, ranking 22nd in batting average and OPS and 17th in wRC+.

Toronto has also famously not scored in the first inning in 26 consecutive games, so all things considered, I like the value on the Orioles to have the lead through five innings in this one.

Blue Jays star player prop

My best bet
Vladimir Guerrero Jr. Over 0.5 RBIs (+150 at PROLINE+)

If the Blue Jays want to change their fortunes against the Orioles they will need a few things tonight. One is of course a strong start from Berrios, the other is Vladimir Guerrero Jr. continuing to carry the offense.

While production has been a big problem for Toronto this season, the bright side is that you can’t really blame Guerrero. The Blue Jays star first baseman has been hitting .367 with a .937 OPS since the end of April (33 games). That includes seven doubles and three dingers.

At the very least, the Blue Jays coaches have looked more willing to experiment with the lineup to see what works, and that has meant more opportunities for Vladdy to drive in runs, which he has done 17 times over this 33-game stretch.

Our Covers Prop Projections have Guerrero at 0.8 RBIs for this matchup, so there is definitely some value in the Over at this price, something he has done in two of the past three games.

Orioles vs Blue Jays odds

Orioles vs Blue Jays live odds

Orioles vs Blue Jays opening odds

• Run line: Baltimore +1.5 (-170) | Toronto -1.5 (+145)
• Moneyline: Baltimore +120 | Toronto -140
• Over/Under: Over 8.5 | Under 8.5

Orioles vs Blue Jays spread and Over/Under analysis

• The Blue Jays opened this AL East matchup as -140 home favorites but the Orioles have seen a steady stream of action and Toronto is now down to the -115 range.
• The Blue Jays are 3-14 in their last 17 games against the Orioles, including the first two games of this series in which they have been outscored 17-3.
• The total for this matchup hit the board at 8.5 but has been bet down to an even 8 as of Wednesday afternoon.
• The combination of Berrios' strong season and the Blue Jays' inconsistent bats have made them an Under machine when he is on the mound, going 9-3 in 12 starts. But don't be shocked if the Orioles pop off tonight.

Orioles vs Blue Jays trend

The Orioles have hit the Run Line in 26 of their last 46 games for +10.45 Units and a 20% ROI. Find more MLB betting trends for Orioles vs. Blue Jays

Orioles vs Blue Jays game info

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