General Discussion - A mathematically analysis on the Locus of Corruption - Forum - Path of Exile (2024)

Many people buy the Chronicles of Atlzoatl just to use the Locus of Corruption and make some profit on luck, I say that most of these people are having a loss and I will show this mathematically. I’m not saying that the Chronicles of Atlzoatl don’t make a profit, certainly not, just that focusing only on the Locus of Corruption is a terrible idea.

Most players who do this must forget the losses when they get very lucky, but in the long run, it is very difficult to profit. Now let’s go to the math part.

Let’s suppose you buy 100 maps, costing 1d each, and you buy 100 items costing 1d each (I know that players buy more expensive items, this proportionally also makes the cost of the investment higher, I’m using 1d to make it easier to understand the math part). The items themselves will be Armors/Weapon 6L

In total, you had a cost of 200d. Statistically speaking, we know that in 50% of the runs you will lose everything, so 100d are GUARANTEED loss.

In the other 50% of runs, you need to profit at LEAST 200d, otherwise you will be negative overall. This means that in 50 maps, you need to have an average return of 4d per map. JUST TO NOT HAVE A LOSS, but that’s not the goal, you want to make a profit don’t you? So at least I would say you need to make about 300d in 50 runs, giving 6d of profit per run.

It is very difficult for an item that cost 1d to come with 2 implicits that will make the final result sell for 6x the investment value. Even if you buy an item for 100d, it is unlikely that two more implicits will make it sell for more than 700d.

The items with all white sockets do not sell for much more, most of the time you can double the value of the item, but on average you get only 50% more.

So, then 50 runs your profit will be 0, with 100d of loss. So 25 runs (white sockets) you will transform 25d into potentially 50d. The total cost was 200d remember? So there would be 150d left to pay.

This means that the 25 runs that will give 2 implicits, the item needs to multiply its value by 6 times JUST TO PAY FOR ALL THE RUNS, it needs to be sold for 7x its initial value to make a profit statistically speaking. If you change the value of 1d per item to 100d the item you will see that you will arrive at the same analysis, as your investment will be higher.

I am analyzing the case of items that can make a profit if they become white sockets, items like Dallas, Amulets or Belts that do not have this option, the calculation would be different.

One thing is selling one or two items for 20x the initial value, another thing is having this same consistency in the 25 runs, many times bad implicits come that do not increase the initial value so much.

I don’t think the whole Atlzoatl mechanic is bad, because if you consider that you can still profit on Doryanis and Apex, plus drops like 1d on the Boss and other rooms, I’m sure the mechanic clearly pays for the cost of the map + items. But if you only focus on the Locus, you might need to review your strategy.

if people werent making money on them at 1D each, they wouldnt *buy* them at 1D each. supply would increase, the price would fall, to the point where they are cheap enough to make profit off of.

also, your nice essay has no actual statistics in it. just a bunch of "i feel thus".

if you had a chart, documenting the results of some number (25+) of corruptions, and their outcome values vs input values, *THEN* this would border on a 'statistical analysis'.

Biggest compliments for my crafted items - "bs, they must have been RMT'ed"

I'm disabled, I have rare case of semperduravera, so I can write things that may look rude, but it is because of disability - I'm forced to tell truth using words you may not like.

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Arkantos_hs wrote:

I agree with you, I myself sold an item this week that made a profit of 40x the investment, but don't you agree that most of the time the selling prices aren't that good? Yes, it gives a "lot" of profit, but the profit will not always be 7x greater than the investment, so the few times that this happens MAY not compensate for the times that there was not such a high profit.

For-profit crafting always has a risk and reward to it. 'tis the way of things

Biggest compliments for my crafted items - "bs, they must have been RMT'ed"

I'm disabled, I have rare case of semperduravera, so I can write things that may look rude, but it is because of disability - I'm forced to tell truth using words you may not like.

to put it plain and simple: there is this thing called a "market". Statistics across all aspects of the game and players create this thing called a "market", and the valuations therein of each individual item. MILLIONS of interactions have determined that the average VALUE of a Locus of Corruption is 1 divine.

That valuation is determined by, to name a few:
1) The "average" profit one makes running these
2) The price at which people are willing to buy these rooms in order to turn a profit.
3) The "value" and odds of corruptions and double corruptions on popular items

You don't need to do any funky math jumping jack tricks to "prove a point"; the market has already done all the math for you. There are temporary blips thanks to streamers, but those are EXCEEDINGLY temporary and are corrected almost instantaneously.

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jsuslak313 wrote:

...
MILLIONS of interactions have determined that the average VALUE of a Locus of Corruption is 1 divine.
...

Are you sure it wasn't "some TFT whales once set it to 1-2ex in times immemorial and everyone are just parroting price they've found as established?" :kapp:

Poe market hardly equals IRL free market because it is not free. First of all the main market stimulus is missing: you won't get hunger or "lose the game" if your marketing strategy proves bad and you fail to sell your stuff. Thus, most agents never do market research, they just look for cheapest price and set their price around it. Also, tons of forgotten outdated listings are unlikely to be bought (or even requested) due to humanly trade system restrictions, but they do influence price calculation software. Which cannot happen in real life.

There may be millions of interactions at the lower end of the market, but this expensive double corrupt gambling is rather niche product for those who are willing to spend days flipping rather than playing, and spend hundreds of div on maybe crafting 1 item.